Category "Mental Models"
Don’t ignore the dragon
We must not ignore the dragons in our lives or they will grow bigger and bigger, until they are destabilizing. Acknowledging your dragons is necessary to keep them kitten-sized.
The anatomy of trust
For investors, trust is an especially fascinating topic. It’s often a factor within the investment thesis since it relates to management teams. And yet, how should we consider “trust” in the context of management teams? How much trust is really...
Peanut butter (or why to expect the improbable)
Would you rather give up your favourite food for the rest of your life or wake up every day with a 5% chance of being completely covered in peanut butter?
Are all New Zealanders male and vegetarian?
In our experience, it is useful to have a checklist to question the validity of statistics. We find checklists to be powerful tools in our research process—especially in our forensic accounting and risk work—and they are no less potent here.
Bayes for days: What to do with signal
We need to ask: what is the best way to deal with new information? Fortunately, there is a tool that can help us with this problem: Bayes’ Theorem.
Galapagos Island risk
Complacency is often overcome, not by desire, but by necessity. In the case of business, a little competition is often exactly what we need to encourage improvement.
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