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Stop, Go, Yield: A Quick Mental Model for Uncertain Times

April 4, 2025 Print

We are living through a period of substantial transition. Look no further than the steady stream of executive orders emanating from the Trump administration, the dramatic recent escalation in trade barriers, or Germany’s recent commitment to spend €1 trillion on defense and infrastructure, forsaking its once unimpeachable debt brake.

Further complicating matters, while a realignment of the world economic and geopolitical order is occurring rapidly, the degree of policy uncertainty evokes the image of a four-way traffic stop, each driver glancing at the other waiting for the next move. Consumers debating whether to spend, central banks deliberating over the appropriate course of action, companies determining if/when/where to make investments may delay these decisions in the face of heightened policy uncertainty.

At times like these, temperament matters as much as analysis. The temptation to react impulsively—to slam on the brakes or to accelerate too quickly—can be costly. While transitions create uncertainty, they also generate opportunity for those who remain clear-eyed.

The road ahead will have its twists, but our approach remains the same: prioritize resilience over reaction and discipline over distraction. Our North Star: a focus on attractively valued, well-run businesses that can withstand turbulence by, quite simply, selling a good or a service their clients value at a price that more-than-covers the cost of capital by virtue of a competitive advantage, thereby creating wealth.

Just like at a busy intersection, apply the right balance of focus, patience, and decisiveness.


This blog post is solely intended for informational purposes and should not be construed as individualized investment advice, research, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold specific securities.  Information provided reflects current views based on data available at the time or writing and may change without notice.  Mawer Investment Management Ltd. and/or its clients may hold positions in the securities mentioned, which may create a potential conflict of interest. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. does not guarantee the completeness or accuracy of this information and disclaims liability for any reliance placed on the publication.  Mawer Investment Management Ltd. is not liable for any damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, its use or misuse.