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‘Twas the week before Christmas

December 21, 2022

'Twas the week before Christmas
Thus time to review—
The economic story
Of 2022.

What y'all know is coming…
We would be remiss
To not raise inflation
—It caused few any bliss.

As most of us can attest
Pump prices did soar
Our food is more expensive…
Everything is more :(

As inflation kept rising
To multi-decade highs,
Central banks kept committing
To be its demise.

They have done many rate hikes
To tame the great beast
But despite their strong actions
CPI increased.

And the impact on markets
—It's true and it's sad—
For both equities and bonds
The decline was bad.

For when interest rates go up
Bond prices — subtractive
Future values for equities
Look less attractive.

The impact was greatest
For high-flying tech
Unprofitable cash flows
Do now seem a wreck.

While stronger businesses
With power to price
Could maintain their margins
With little sacrifice.

But volatility loomed large
Throughout the whole year
Powell says anything and…
Risk-on, or great fear!

Devastating conflict
Arose in Ukraine
Commodities went up—
Supply chains in pain.

To add to the problem
Of supply chain morose
China's Zero-COVID policy
Led to more woes.

There was more from China
That gave us the yips
—Much consternation over
Tiny little chips.

Deglobalization may lead
To a world multi-polar
Will the U.S. dollar stay
Currency’s high roller?

Speaking of challenges…
Across the vast pond…
A mini budget announced
—Of which no one was fond

It sent UK yields soaring
The pound nearly hit
Parity with the USD
It all went to… (you know)

And speaking of disorder
Musk’s rash purchase
Has caused Twitter to twitter
And debates to surface.

Cryptocurrency did plunge
Amid the spiral
Of FTX Exchange
The collapse went viral.

We avoid all the crypto
On it, we’re tough
In regards to our criteria—
It’s not “boring” enough.

We acknowledge the content
Of this poem seems bleak
Uncertainty still remains—
There’re answers to seek.

Is a recession for sure?
Hard or soft landing?
Is this just a bear rally,
Or one longer standing?

But to end on a high note
This message we send:
“It’s not all doom and gloom,
bear markets will end.”

For now, we trust the process
Stay calm and prepare
Continue thinking long term
Choose “boring” over flare.

Our greatest wish for you all:
Your worries be light,
Have financial peace of mind,
To sleep through the night.

Happy holidays from all of us at Mawer!


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