Back Twas the week before Christmas 2019

‘Twas the week before Christmas

December 18, 2019

‘Twas the week before Christmas 
And Mawer’s on the scene 
To tell you the tale 
Of 2019 

Was it good? Was it great? 
Some say: yes! Ho, ho, ho! 
(Though mixed signals and offsets  
Oft’ ran the show) 

Central banks’ interventions 
Were less hawk than dove 
Looking to bond markets 
Like the North Star above 

Interest rates, interest rates 
The Fed doth cut thrice 
Discount rates remain lower 
Supporting stocks’ price 

Quality is expensive  
But may see us through 
When you look at the long-term 
With a bottom-up view

But we do pay attention  
To themes that arise 
That could impact markets 
To avoid a surprise  

Global economic growth 
It did indeed slow 
But shrink, it did not, 
And onwards it goes 

PMIs are indices 
That tell you the trends 
Of prevailing directions  
Of the economy’s wends  

Manufacturing was down 
Germany was blue 
A potential recession? 
That could become true 

But Servicing was steadfast 
Employment was strong  
Debt servicing manageable 
Things kept chugging along.  

And the saga continues 
The deal’s not yet done! 
Of course, we mean Brexit 
It’s not a home run 

Not all UK businesses 
Will be affected the same 
So whatever’s decided 
Mawer’s still in the game.* 

Oh Canada, Oh Cannabis 
A wild ride for sure 
A budding industry 
We can’t yet endure 

Now that brings us to trade wars 
China vs. Trump 
Tweets sending mixed messages
Stocks rise and then slump 

But short-term daily movements 
Don’t mean a whole lot 
With great fundamentals 
Our holdings—less fraught 

Quality at a good price 
—Both elements key— 
To get the balance just right, 
We work diligently. 

Making sure we have offsets, 
Looking for edges, 
Natural contradictions 
Are what make our hedges 

Whether a blog or a podcast 
We strive to make clear 
We think micro not macro 
—No predicting the year! 

While the world is complex, 
The road, it may wind, 
We keep being boring 
To give peace of mind. 

* Yes…we shamelessly reused this stanza from last year, as our thesis remains unchanged. 

This blog and its contents are for informational purposes only. Information relating to investment approaches or individual investments should not be construed as advice or endorsement. Any views expressed in this blog were prepared based upon the information available at the time and are subject to change. All information is subject to possible correction. In no event shall Mawer Investment Management Ltd. be liable for any damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use or inability to use this blog appropriately.