Beware the linearity bias
We tend to think of our world in linear terms, where the output of a system is proportional and directly correlated to its inputs.
The Art of Boring™ was created for curious and passionate investors. We share strategies, frameworks, and insights to help readers and listeners make better investment decisions. Our aim? To provide some bottom-up, long-term investing signal to cut through the short-term noise.
We tend to think of our world in linear terms, where the output of a system is proportional and directly correlated to its inputs.
The “Swiss cheese” mental model for risk management, why we initiated in Moderna, and how to test if you have a variant perception from the broader market.
Market swings, central bank moves, and rising interest rates. A look at Q3.
What makes the U.S. mid cap investable universe unique, some key learnings since the strategy’s launch, and how inflation can be a “positive” for wealth-creating companies.
Why small caps may zig while large caps zag, the advantage of businesses that sell scarce skills (CBIZ, Insperity, RS Group), and why eyewear retail is harder than it…looks.
The impacts of inflation, interest rates, and sharp currency movements on the portfolio, and the importance of leaning in to process and keeping a long-term perspective.
The team debates the thesis that renewables are becoming “cheaper” than traditional energy sources, unpacks why the ultimate cost to the end consumer shouldn’t be missing from the conversation, and delves into the investment implications.
Inflation, interest rates, the valuation correction, bias creep, and “sticking to our knitting.” A full dive into Q2.
CIO Paul Moroz unpacks the foundational components to better decision making for investing, business, and life.
Lead Portfolio Manager, Crista Caughlin, on what’s happening in bond markets, a look at inflation and interest rates, and the key scenarios we’re monitoring.
Opportunities and risks we’re seeing in energy, rail, and financials; why we exited Shopify; and a few team learnings.
What DevOps is and why it’s a theme with investment potential.
We tend to think of our world in linear terms, where the output of a system is proportional and directly correlated to its inputs.
The “Swiss cheese” mental model for risk management, why we initiated in Moderna, and how to test if you have a variant perception from the broader market.
Market swings, central bank moves, and rising interest rates. A look at Q3.
What makes the U.S. mid cap investable universe unique, some key learnings since the strategy’s launch, and how inflation can be a “positive” for wealth-creating companies.
Why small caps may zig while large caps zag, the advantage of businesses that sell scarce skills (CBIZ, Insperity, RS Group), and why eyewear retail is harder than it…looks.
The impacts of inflation, interest rates, and sharp currency movements on the portfolio, and the importance of leaning in to process and keeping a long-term perspective.
The team debates the thesis that renewables are becoming “cheaper” than traditional energy sources, unpacks why the ultimate cost to the end consumer shouldn’t be missing from the conversation, and delves into the investment implications.
Inflation, interest rates, the valuation correction, bias creep, and “sticking to our knitting.” A full dive into Q2.
CIO Paul Moroz unpacks the foundational components to better decision making for investing, business, and life.
Lead Portfolio Manager, Crista Caughlin, on what’s happening in bond markets, a look at inflation and interest rates, and the key scenarios we’re monitoring.
Opportunities and risks we’re seeing in energy, rail, and financials; why we exited Shopify; and a few team learnings.
What DevOps is and why it’s a theme with investment potential.
A podcast about decision-making theory, a global fiscal policy tracker, a blog about market assumptions, and an infinite monkey theorem experiment. The ideas springs have sprung.
Over the last week, the world has seen a continued increase in COVID-19 cases and, consequently, a greater effort to contain the virus.
Throughout the week, governments around the world have continued to take more significant measures to contain the spread of COVID-19.
Considering the significant market volatility resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as the plunge in oil prices reflecting Saudi Arabia’s decision to accelerate output, we wanted to provide you with an update on Mawer’s strategy in this challenging environment.
Why, in investing, it is better to ‘avoid the zeros’; what 700 years of falling interest rates looks like; how mathematics can be a study in wonder (i.e., fun); and the way spices spurred on empires.
One of our enduring beliefs is that investors serially underappreciate the long-term value of strong management teams
We close the first month of 2020 by considering the WEF’s list of the top global economic risks (sorted by likelihood and potential extent of impact), Howard Mark’s framework for assessing investment decisions (game theory makes an appearance), what Houdini has to do with risk, and really, what the rise of 5G means for tech.
As the end of the year (and decade!) is nigh, we thought we’d join the year-in-review fervour, and curate a list of our Top 10 favourite links from 2019.
‘Twas the week before Christmas, and Mawer’s on the scene, to tell you the tale of 2019.
This month, we learned how the 7 most common plots in storytelling can help investors; why analyzing historical returns usually needs more context; the case for “narrative economics”; and a look at the first map of America’s food supply chain.
Investing is a fitting example of an infinite game. Why is it that some players last longer in this game than others?
This month’s finds include a think-piece on the rise of negative interest rates; a spotlight on Shopify’s origins; what WeWork demonstrates about private vs. public markets for tech stocks; and a look into how humanity’s obsession with gambling has influenced mathematics.
A podcast about decision-making theory, a global fiscal policy tracker, a blog about market assumptions, and an infinite monkey theorem experiment. The ideas springs have sprung.
Over the last week, the world has seen a continued increase in COVID-19 cases and, consequently, a greater effort to contain the virus.
Throughout the week, governments around the world have continued to take more significant measures to contain the spread of COVID-19.
Considering the significant market volatility resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as the plunge in oil prices reflecting Saudi Arabia’s decision to accelerate output, we wanted to provide you with an update on Mawer’s strategy in this challenging environment.
Why, in investing, it is better to ‘avoid the zeros’; what 700 years of falling interest rates looks like; how mathematics can be a study in wonder (i.e., fun); and the way spices spurred on empires.
One of our enduring beliefs is that investors serially underappreciate the long-term value of strong management teams
We close the first month of 2020 by considering the WEF’s list of the top global economic risks (sorted by likelihood and potential extent of impact), Howard Mark’s framework for assessing investment decisions (game theory makes an appearance), what Houdini has to do with risk, and really, what the rise of 5G means for tech.
As the end of the year (and decade!) is nigh, we thought we’d join the year-in-review fervour, and curate a list of our Top 10 favourite links from 2019.
‘Twas the week before Christmas, and Mawer’s on the scene, to tell you the tale of 2019.
This month, we learned how the 7 most common plots in storytelling can help investors; why analyzing historical returns usually needs more context; the case for “narrative economics”; and a look at the first map of America’s food supply chain.
Investing is a fitting example of an infinite game. Why is it that some players last longer in this game than others?
This month’s finds include a think-piece on the rise of negative interest rates; a spotlight on Shopify’s origins; what WeWork demonstrates about private vs. public markets for tech stocks; and a look into how humanity’s obsession with gambling has influenced mathematics.
Mispricing patterns we’re seeing in the market; where we’re finding an edge; improving our management team assessment techniques.
A real time risk management discussion addressing the increasing regulatory pressures currently impacting a wide range of businesses in China.
The tremendous IPO activity led by tech companies; our evaluation process for a company prior to it becoming public; and recent matrix meeting outcomes for the portfolio.
Philip Fisher’s continuous relevance; determining fair value ranges for blitzscalers; and potentially overlooked opportunities in Russia and Kazakhstan.
A review of the quarter: the high-level themes have continued.
CIO Paul Moroz walks us through his “best practices” portfolio construction checklist.
Opening the Pandora’s box of Bitcoin, societal trust, and why investors might not, but need to, fully understand the technology.
“Making the macro micro” around demand trends, inflation concerns, valuations, and earnings. We discuss Comcast, Visa, Dollar General, Alphabet, and more.
A close look at our research methods to understand trends, opportunities, and challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.
How thinking like a deer in the forest (situational awareness) and other risk management process tinkering has helped the team. In addition, thoughts on the potential CP Rail and Kansas City Southern deal and TELUS International IPO.
One year since lockdown: CIO Paul Moroz summarizes the major market themes of the past four quarters and how it has (and hasn’t) affected our process and way of looking at the world.
Equity Analyst, Stanislav Lopata, shares his observations regarding the pandemic’s impacts on markets and what’s new with the portfolio.
Mispricing patterns we’re seeing in the market; where we’re finding an edge; improving our management team assessment techniques.
A real time risk management discussion addressing the increasing regulatory pressures currently impacting a wide range of businesses in China.
The tremendous IPO activity led by tech companies; our evaluation process for a company prior to it becoming public; and recent matrix meeting outcomes for the portfolio.
Philip Fisher’s continuous relevance; determining fair value ranges for blitzscalers; and potentially overlooked opportunities in Russia and Kazakhstan.
A review of the quarter: the high-level themes have continued.
CIO Paul Moroz walks us through his “best practices” portfolio construction checklist.
Opening the Pandora’s box of Bitcoin, societal trust, and why investors might not, but need to, fully understand the technology.
“Making the macro micro” around demand trends, inflation concerns, valuations, and earnings. We discuss Comcast, Visa, Dollar General, Alphabet, and more.
A close look at our research methods to understand trends, opportunities, and challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.
How thinking like a deer in the forest (situational awareness) and other risk management process tinkering has helped the team. In addition, thoughts on the potential CP Rail and Kansas City Southern deal and TELUS International IPO.
One year since lockdown: CIO Paul Moroz summarizes the major market themes of the past four quarters and how it has (and hasn’t) affected our process and way of looking at the world.
Equity Analyst, Stanislav Lopata, shares his observations regarding the pandemic’s impacts on markets and what’s new with the portfolio.