Beware the linearity bias
We tend to think of our world in linear terms, where the output of a system is proportional and directly correlated to its inputs.
The Art of Boring™ was created for curious and passionate investors. We share strategies, frameworks, and insights to help readers and listeners make better investment decisions. Our aim? To provide some bottom-up, long-term investing signal to cut through the short-term noise.
We tend to think of our world in linear terms, where the output of a system is proportional and directly correlated to its inputs.
The “Swiss cheese” mental model for risk management, why we initiated in Moderna, and how to test if you have a variant perception from the broader market.
Market swings, central bank moves, and rising interest rates. A look at Q3.
What makes the U.S. mid cap investable universe unique, some key learnings since the strategy’s launch, and how inflation can be a “positive” for wealth-creating companies.
Why small caps may zig while large caps zag, the advantage of businesses that sell scarce skills (CBIZ, Insperity, RS Group), and why eyewear retail is harder than it…looks.
The impacts of inflation, interest rates, and sharp currency movements on the portfolio, and the importance of leaning in to process and keeping a long-term perspective.
The team debates the thesis that renewables are becoming “cheaper” than traditional energy sources, unpacks why the ultimate cost to the end consumer shouldn’t be missing from the conversation, and delves into the investment implications.
Inflation, interest rates, the valuation correction, bias creep, and “sticking to our knitting.” A full dive into Q2.
CIO Paul Moroz unpacks the foundational components to better decision making for investing, business, and life.
Lead Portfolio Manager, Crista Caughlin, on what’s happening in bond markets, a look at inflation and interest rates, and the key scenarios we’re monitoring.
Opportunities and risks we’re seeing in energy, rail, and financials; why we exited Shopify; and a few team learnings.
What DevOps is and why it’s a theme with investment potential.
We tend to think of our world in linear terms, where the output of a system is proportional and directly correlated to its inputs.
The “Swiss cheese” mental model for risk management, why we initiated in Moderna, and how to test if you have a variant perception from the broader market.
Market swings, central bank moves, and rising interest rates. A look at Q3.
What makes the U.S. mid cap investable universe unique, some key learnings since the strategy’s launch, and how inflation can be a “positive” for wealth-creating companies.
Why small caps may zig while large caps zag, the advantage of businesses that sell scarce skills (CBIZ, Insperity, RS Group), and why eyewear retail is harder than it…looks.
The impacts of inflation, interest rates, and sharp currency movements on the portfolio, and the importance of leaning in to process and keeping a long-term perspective.
The team debates the thesis that renewables are becoming “cheaper” than traditional energy sources, unpacks why the ultimate cost to the end consumer shouldn’t be missing from the conversation, and delves into the investment implications.
Inflation, interest rates, the valuation correction, bias creep, and “sticking to our knitting.” A full dive into Q2.
CIO Paul Moroz unpacks the foundational components to better decision making for investing, business, and life.
Lead Portfolio Manager, Crista Caughlin, on what’s happening in bond markets, a look at inflation and interest rates, and the key scenarios we’re monitoring.
Opportunities and risks we’re seeing in energy, rail, and financials; why we exited Shopify; and a few team learnings.
What DevOps is and why it’s a theme with investment potential.
Narrow rules have a cost. Although there is value in the clarity of rule, process and position, a system must also be flexible.
Just how important is a common language to investing? While some investors view it as the sort of soft, fluffy stuff best left to liberal arts majors, empirically—and in our experience— it is an essential feature of high performing investment teams.
A few weeks ago, I was introduced to Google’s Toothbrush Test. Contrary to the images that the name inspires, this test does not involve sticking a web-enabled toothbrush into your mouth to collect data on your molars. Instead, it relates to how Google allocates capital.
This past week, one of my colleagues shared a learning at our weekly research meeting. Christian and his wife, Siggi, were on vacation when Siggi unfortunately dropped her iPhone into the bath.
Imagine you spent 4% of your life waiting in line. Given that there are 8,765 hours in a year, this would imply that you spent 350 hours each year staring at the backs of people’s heads.
The restaurant industry is tough. Virtually anyone with decent cooking skills and a modest amount of capital can open one; the barriers to entry are quite low. Restaurateurs must also face an unpredictable customer base, as well as significant competition and substitutes.
History is ripe with hucksters. Investors were reminded of this again this month when stock market darling Gowex declared bankruptcy.
Narrow rules have a cost. Although there is value in the clarity of rule, process and position, a system must also be flexible.
Just how important is a common language to investing? While some investors view it as the sort of soft, fluffy stuff best left to liberal arts majors, empirically—and in our experience— it is an essential feature of high performing investment teams.
A few weeks ago, I was introduced to Google’s Toothbrush Test. Contrary to the images that the name inspires, this test does not involve sticking a web-enabled toothbrush into your mouth to collect data on your molars. Instead, it relates to how Google allocates capital.
This past week, one of my colleagues shared a learning at our weekly research meeting. Christian and his wife, Siggi, were on vacation when Siggi unfortunately dropped her iPhone into the bath.
Imagine you spent 4% of your life waiting in line. Given that there are 8,765 hours in a year, this would imply that you spent 350 hours each year staring at the backs of people’s heads.
The restaurant industry is tough. Virtually anyone with decent cooking skills and a modest amount of capital can open one; the barriers to entry are quite low. Restaurateurs must also face an unpredictable customer base, as well as significant competition and substitutes.
History is ripe with hucksters. Investors were reminded of this again this month when stock market darling Gowex declared bankruptcy.
What makes the U.S. mid cap investable universe unique, some key learnings since the strategy’s launch, and how inflation can be a “positive” for wealth-creating companies.
Why small caps may zig while large caps zag, the advantage of businesses that sell scarce skills (CBIZ, Insperity, RS Group), and why eyewear retail is harder than it…looks.
The impacts of inflation, interest rates, and sharp currency movements on the portfolio, and the importance of leaning in to process and keeping a long-term perspective.
The team debates the thesis that renewables are becoming “cheaper” than traditional energy sources, unpacks why the ultimate cost to the end consumer shouldn’t be missing from the conversation, and delves into the investment implications.
Inflation, interest rates, the valuation correction, bias creep, and “sticking to our knitting.” A full dive into Q2.
CIO Paul Moroz unpacks the foundational components to better decision making for investing, business, and life.
Lead Portfolio Manager, Crista Caughlin, on what’s happening in bond markets, a look at inflation and interest rates, and the key scenarios we’re monitoring.
Opportunities and risks we’re seeing in energy, rail, and financials; why we exited Shopify; and a few team learnings.
What DevOps is and why it’s a theme with investment potential.
On building a “global investment franchise” and balancing the trade-offs between creativity, efficiency, and process to build a consistent environment for better investment decisions.
Russia, the potential parallels to Taiwan and China, and macro to micro portfolio considerations in an inflationary environment.
CIO Paul Moroz shares his take on what’s happening in the markets, some of the underlying factors behind recent performance, and a reminder that the wheels of capitalism will continue to turn.
What makes the U.S. mid cap investable universe unique, some key learnings since the strategy’s launch, and how inflation can be a “positive” for wealth-creating companies.
Why small caps may zig while large caps zag, the advantage of businesses that sell scarce skills (CBIZ, Insperity, RS Group), and why eyewear retail is harder than it…looks.
The impacts of inflation, interest rates, and sharp currency movements on the portfolio, and the importance of leaning in to process and keeping a long-term perspective.
The team debates the thesis that renewables are becoming “cheaper” than traditional energy sources, unpacks why the ultimate cost to the end consumer shouldn’t be missing from the conversation, and delves into the investment implications.
Inflation, interest rates, the valuation correction, bias creep, and “sticking to our knitting.” A full dive into Q2.
CIO Paul Moroz unpacks the foundational components to better decision making for investing, business, and life.
Lead Portfolio Manager, Crista Caughlin, on what’s happening in bond markets, a look at inflation and interest rates, and the key scenarios we’re monitoring.
Opportunities and risks we’re seeing in energy, rail, and financials; why we exited Shopify; and a few team learnings.
What DevOps is and why it’s a theme with investment potential.
On building a “global investment franchise” and balancing the trade-offs between creativity, efficiency, and process to build a consistent environment for better investment decisions.
Russia, the potential parallels to Taiwan and China, and macro to micro portfolio considerations in an inflationary environment.
CIO Paul Moroz shares his take on what’s happening in the markets, some of the underlying factors behind recent performance, and a reminder that the wheels of capitalism will continue to turn.