Beware the linearity bias
We tend to think of our world in linear terms, where the output of a system is proportional and directly correlated to its inputs.
The Art of Boring™ was created for curious and passionate investors. We share strategies, frameworks, and insights to help readers and listeners make better investment decisions. Our aim? To provide some bottom-up, long-term investing signal to cut through the short-term noise.
We tend to think of our world in linear terms, where the output of a system is proportional and directly correlated to its inputs.
The “Swiss cheese” mental model for risk management, why we initiated in Moderna, and how to test if you have a variant perception from the broader market.
Market swings, central bank moves, and rising interest rates. A look at Q3.
What makes the U.S. mid cap investable universe unique, some key learnings since the strategy’s launch, and how inflation can be a “positive” for wealth-creating companies.
Why small caps may zig while large caps zag, the advantage of businesses that sell scarce skills (CBIZ, Insperity, RS Group), and why eyewear retail is harder than it…looks.
The impacts of inflation, interest rates, and sharp currency movements on the portfolio, and the importance of leaning in to process and keeping a long-term perspective.
The team debates the thesis that renewables are becoming “cheaper” than traditional energy sources, unpacks why the ultimate cost to the end consumer shouldn’t be missing from the conversation, and delves into the investment implications.
Inflation, interest rates, the valuation correction, bias creep, and “sticking to our knitting.” A full dive into Q2.
CIO Paul Moroz unpacks the foundational components to better decision making for investing, business, and life.
Lead Portfolio Manager, Crista Caughlin, on what’s happening in bond markets, a look at inflation and interest rates, and the key scenarios we’re monitoring.
Opportunities and risks we’re seeing in energy, rail, and financials; why we exited Shopify; and a few team learnings.
What DevOps is and why it’s a theme with investment potential.
We tend to think of our world in linear terms, where the output of a system is proportional and directly correlated to its inputs.
The “Swiss cheese” mental model for risk management, why we initiated in Moderna, and how to test if you have a variant perception from the broader market.
Market swings, central bank moves, and rising interest rates. A look at Q3.
What makes the U.S. mid cap investable universe unique, some key learnings since the strategy’s launch, and how inflation can be a “positive” for wealth-creating companies.
Why small caps may zig while large caps zag, the advantage of businesses that sell scarce skills (CBIZ, Insperity, RS Group), and why eyewear retail is harder than it…looks.
The impacts of inflation, interest rates, and sharp currency movements on the portfolio, and the importance of leaning in to process and keeping a long-term perspective.
The team debates the thesis that renewables are becoming “cheaper” than traditional energy sources, unpacks why the ultimate cost to the end consumer shouldn’t be missing from the conversation, and delves into the investment implications.
Inflation, interest rates, the valuation correction, bias creep, and “sticking to our knitting.” A full dive into Q2.
CIO Paul Moroz unpacks the foundational components to better decision making for investing, business, and life.
Lead Portfolio Manager, Crista Caughlin, on what’s happening in bond markets, a look at inflation and interest rates, and the key scenarios we’re monitoring.
Opportunities and risks we’re seeing in energy, rail, and financials; why we exited Shopify; and a few team learnings.
What DevOps is and why it’s a theme with investment potential.
CIO Paul Moroz was interviewed by Columbia's Business School about how he got into investing, his experiences, and more.
Our finds this month include short, helpful investing philosophies to keep in mind and on hand; a case for statistical literacy in civic life; the intriguing history of money as a means of trade; and ways to handle our behavioural biases.
The strength of your competition has an important bearing on your own odds of success.
We thought we’d channel some of that “back to school” enthusiasm and provide a few recommended reads. (Why should kids have all the fun?!) Each selection was hand-picked from our Research team. Happy reading everyone!
On the docket this August is another memo from Howard Marks; a guide on the recent yield curve inversion; Jim O’Shaughnessy on the challenges but potential upsides of active investing; and the reminder that investors have more of a time horizon than they think.
We believe that clear communication of ideas and analysis contributes to sound decision-making.
Piquing our interest this month: why companies seem to be undervalued in Japan; what to do in a falling stock market; how chess computers have developed over time; and some investing wisdom from Wall Street personal finance columnist, Jason Zweig.
Given the extent of voracious readers we have here at Mawer, pulling together a recommended reads post is no easy task!
This month we learned that broader lessons from history have more leverage; how the shifts over time in the intangible tech economy are impacting businesses and consumers; that AIs are getting more lifelike and creative; and that it’s important to stop anticipating bad things happening and be more present.
We have found that many Canadian investors—or any investor, for that matter—can be reluctant to diversify beyond their borders, but portfolios solely invested in Canada might as well be an egg crate on a rickety motorcycle. You might get where you want to go, but there will likely be a lot more risk during the journey. And, for many client situations, this means too much is riding on one bet—with not enough balance.
Over the long-term, the accumulated costs of technical debt can have a financial impact on a company and its shareholders.
The need to check and recheck your numbers, a bull market for baby teeth, the lures of personal finance personalities, and how Instagram is becoming the new mall…it was an interesting month.
CIO Paul Moroz was interviewed by Columbia's Business School about how he got into investing, his experiences, and more.
Our finds this month include short, helpful investing philosophies to keep in mind and on hand; a case for statistical literacy in civic life; the intriguing history of money as a means of trade; and ways to handle our behavioural biases.
The strength of your competition has an important bearing on your own odds of success.
We thought we’d channel some of that “back to school” enthusiasm and provide a few recommended reads. (Why should kids have all the fun?!) Each selection was hand-picked from our Research team. Happy reading everyone!
On the docket this August is another memo from Howard Marks; a guide on the recent yield curve inversion; Jim O’Shaughnessy on the challenges but potential upsides of active investing; and the reminder that investors have more of a time horizon than they think.
We believe that clear communication of ideas and analysis contributes to sound decision-making.
Piquing our interest this month: why companies seem to be undervalued in Japan; what to do in a falling stock market; how chess computers have developed over time; and some investing wisdom from Wall Street personal finance columnist, Jason Zweig.
Given the extent of voracious readers we have here at Mawer, pulling together a recommended reads post is no easy task!
This month we learned that broader lessons from history have more leverage; how the shifts over time in the intangible tech economy are impacting businesses and consumers; that AIs are getting more lifelike and creative; and that it’s important to stop anticipating bad things happening and be more present.
We have found that many Canadian investors—or any investor, for that matter—can be reluctant to diversify beyond their borders, but portfolios solely invested in Canada might as well be an egg crate on a rickety motorcycle. You might get where you want to go, but there will likely be a lot more risk during the journey. And, for many client situations, this means too much is riding on one bet—with not enough balance.
Over the long-term, the accumulated costs of technical debt can have a financial impact on a company and its shareholders.
The need to check and recheck your numbers, a bull market for baby teeth, the lures of personal finance personalities, and how Instagram is becoming the new mall…it was an interesting month.
Digging into last year’s performance drivers, the current opportunity set, and benefits of resuming boots-on-the-ground research.
The nuanced impacts of inflation to companies’ balance sheets that investors might be missing.
Chief Investment Officer Paul Moroz shares takeaways from the Research team's annual post-mortem discussions.
Portfolio Manager Crista Caughlin walks listeners through the tumultuous bond market experiences of 2022 and outlines three main economic scenarios the team is monitoring for 2023.
Some of the main challenges facing the continent, what we gleaned from visiting over 45 companies, and ESG considerations that are front of mind for major European investment firms.
A review of last quarter, the major themes and takeaways from 2022, and what’s on the horizon for the new year.
What investors can learn from the S-curves of technologies both old and new.
What we think about the newly proposed tax on share buybacks in Canada, a balanced take on the energy theme, and where we’ve trimmed, exited, and added in the portfolio.
How do investors figure out what a company is worth? (Especially in a higher inflationary and interest rate environment?)
A deep dive—right to the atomic level—of how semiconductors work and the potential implications for the industry when Moore’s Law comes to an end.
The deglobalization shift, long-term opportunities we’re seeing in utilities, and what’s interesting about gravel.
The “Swiss cheese” mental model for risk management, why we initiated in Moderna, and how to test if you have a variant perception from the broader market.
Market swings, central bank moves, and rising interest rates. A look at Q3.
Digging into last year’s performance drivers, the current opportunity set, and benefits of resuming boots-on-the-ground research.
The nuanced impacts of inflation to companies’ balance sheets that investors might be missing.
Chief Investment Officer Paul Moroz shares takeaways from the Research team's annual post-mortem discussions.
Portfolio Manager Crista Caughlin walks listeners through the tumultuous bond market experiences of 2022 and outlines three main economic scenarios the team is monitoring for 2023.
Some of the main challenges facing the continent, what we gleaned from visiting over 45 companies, and ESG considerations that are front of mind for major European investment firms.
A review of last quarter, the major themes and takeaways from 2022, and what’s on the horizon for the new year.
What investors can learn from the S-curves of technologies both old and new.
What we think about the newly proposed tax on share buybacks in Canada, a balanced take on the energy theme, and where we’ve trimmed, exited, and added in the portfolio.
How do investors figure out what a company is worth? (Especially in a higher inflationary and interest rate environment?)
A deep dive—right to the atomic level—of how semiconductors work and the potential implications for the industry when Moore’s Law comes to an end.
The deglobalization shift, long-term opportunities we’re seeing in utilities, and what’s interesting about gravel.
The “Swiss cheese” mental model for risk management, why we initiated in Moderna, and how to test if you have a variant perception from the broader market.
Market swings, central bank moves, and rising interest rates. A look at Q3.