Inflation’s One-Two Punch

It’s inflation’s second punch that can deliver a blow that investors may not be expecting.

‘Twas the week before Christmas

'Twas the week before Christmas, thus time to review—the economic story of 2022.

Beware the linearity bias

We tend to think of our world in linear terms, where the output of a system is proportional and directly correlated to its inputs.

The quality conundrum

The conundrum for investors these days is the trade-off between the value of quality and price to pay for it. 

Be aware, but don’t despair!

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

~Mark Twain

'Twas the week before Christmas

‘Twas the week before Christmas, so let's have some fun. Mawer recaps the main themes of 2021.

Prepare don't predict

How an engineering principle can improve investment risk management.

On modern monetary theory

We explore the evolution of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and the notable economic ideas on which it is based. We highlight some notable criticisms and discuss implications of MMT for economic policy and financial markets. Our purpose is less focused on opining whether MMT is fundamentally sound, but rather aimed at understanding its development and how the ground may shift if indeed MMT-based policies are more widely embraced.

Where I’m seeing value in emerging markets

I’ve been revisiting Philip Fisher’s Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits recently. Scanning the opportunity set in emerging markets, I’ve been trying to imagine what Fisher would have made of the current investment landscape.

'Twas the week before Christmas

‘Twas the week before Christmas, (and you know it’s true), COVID looms large in our annual review.

Mawer’s autumn reads 2020

The onset of autumn means ‘tis time for some recommended reads. 

(Not) boring finds for June 2020

Howard Marks sent a memo; Ray Dalio explained the last 500 years as they related to empires and reserve currencies; we learned a new word, “shoshin”; and scanned a lot of charts about U.S. advertising revenue trends.

The enemy is us: Mitigating confirmation bias

Back in March, as physical distancing practices were being implemented globally, I was bemused by contrasting provocatively titled articles published within a day of one another. 

The quest for “holy compounders” | EP101

Our systematic assessment framework to narrow the probabilities in analysing fast-growing technology companies in an effort to improve our odds of identifying those elusive “holy compounders.”

Quarterly update | Q4 2021 | EP100

The major themes of Q4 and a look ahead to 2022.

Deep dive: Inflation | EP99

Inflation cycles throughout history, Keynes vs. monetarists, and why the enemy is…still us.

Playing the plan: Mawer’s Canadian bond portfolio | EP98

Global debt, China’s credit cycle, shifting monetary and fiscal policy objectives, and the three scenarios we are thinking about this year.

Playing the plan: Mawer’s Canadian equity portfolio | EP97

Impacts of higher inflation and interest rates and the benefits of an integrated research team.

Quarterly update | Q3 2021 | EP96

Inflation risk, slowing global growth, and the un-globalization trend—a review of Q3.

Introducing the Mawer U.S. mid cap equity strategy | EP95

Why we launched—our interest and history in U.S. mid cap stocks—potential benefits of the asset class, and a few holding examples.

Prepare instead of predict: Integrating an engineering discipline to improve risk management | EP94

John Kay’s “simplicity, modularity, redundancy” risk framework elements and our ongoing risk management process improvements.

Playing the plan: Mawer’s global small cap portfolio | EP93

Mispricing patterns we’re seeing in the market; where we’re finding an edge; improving our management team assessment techniques.

Intensifying regulatory risk in China | EP92

A real time risk management discussion addressing the increasing regulatory pressures currently impacting a wide range of businesses in China.

Playing the plan: Mawer’s Canadian small cap portfolio | EP91

The tremendous IPO activity led by tech companies; our evaluation process for a company prior to it becoming public; and recent matrix meeting outcomes for the portfolio.

Playing the plan: Mawer’s emerging markets equity portfolio | EP90

Philip Fisher’s continuous relevance; determining fair value ranges for blitzscalers; and potentially overlooked opportunities in Russia and Kazakhstan.