Memory, Part 2: The Risks from China, Technological Change, and Overcapacity | EP 224
Memory has been one of the strongest corners of the semiconductor industry, and strong returns invite hard questions. In the second part of this series, equity analyst Shan Rui Yeo examines the main risks to the memory thesis: rising competition from China's CXMT and YMTC, the technologies that could reduce AI's appetite for memory, and the wave of capacity investment that could eventually tip the industry back into oversupply. He weighs each risk against the constraints holding it back, from equipment export controls to limited EUV supply, and notes that memory companies already trade at three to five times forward earnings. The conversation closes on a working principle: treat the terminal value as a distribution, not a fixed number.