Beware the linearity bias

We tend to think of our world in linear terms, where the output of a system is proportional and directly correlated to its inputs.

The quality conundrum

The conundrum for investors these days is the trade-off between the value of quality and price to pay for it. 

Be aware, but don’t despair!

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

~Mark Twain

'Twas the week before Christmas

‘Twas the week before Christmas, so let's have some fun. Mawer recaps the main themes of 2021.

Prepare don't predict

How an engineering principle can improve investment risk management.

On modern monetary theory

We explore the evolution of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and the notable economic ideas on which it is based. We highlight some notable criticisms and discuss implications of MMT for economic policy and financial markets. Our purpose is less focused on opining whether MMT is fundamentally sound, but rather aimed at understanding its development and how the ground may shift if indeed MMT-based policies are more widely embraced.

Where I’m seeing value in emerging markets

I’ve been revisiting Philip Fisher’s Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits recently. Scanning the opportunity set in emerging markets, I’ve been trying to imagine what Fisher would have made of the current investment landscape.

'Twas the week before Christmas

‘Twas the week before Christmas, (and you know it’s true), COVID looms large in our annual review.

Mawer’s autumn reads 2020

The onset of autumn means ‘tis time for some recommended reads. 

(Not) boring finds for June 2020

Howard Marks sent a memo; Ray Dalio explained the last 500 years as they related to empires and reserve currencies; we learned a new word, “shoshin”; and scanned a lot of charts about U.S. advertising revenue trends.

The enemy is us: Mitigating confirmation bias

Back in March, as physical distancing practices were being implemented globally, I was bemused by contrasting provocatively titled articles published within a day of one another. 

(Not) boring finds for May 2020

A podcast about decision-making theory, a global fiscal policy tracker, a blog about market assumptions, and an infinite monkey theorem experiment. The ideas springs have sprung.

Mawer Market Update—March 20, 2020

Over the last week, the world has seen a continued increase in COVID-19 cases and, consequently, a greater effort to contain the virus. 

The art of discount rates | EP122

How do investors figure out what a company is worth? (Especially in a higher inflationary and interest rate environment?)

What the end of Moore's Law means for the semiconductor industry | EP121

A deep dive—right to the atomic level—of how semiconductors work and the potential implications for the industry when Moore’s Law comes to an end.

Playing the plan: Mawer’s U.S. equity portfolio | EP120

The deglobalization shift, long-term opportunities we’re seeing in utilities, and what’s interesting about gravel.

Playing the plan: Mawer’s global equity portfolio | EP119

The “Swiss cheese” mental model for risk management, why we initiated in Moderna, and how to test if you have a variant perception from the broader market.

Quarterly Update | Q3 2022 | EP118

Market swings, central bank moves, and rising interest rates. A look at Q3.

Playing the plan: Mawer's U.S. mid cap equity portfolio | EP117

What makes the U.S. mid cap investable universe unique, some key learnings since the strategy’s launch, and how inflation can be a “positive” for wealth-creating companies.

Playing the plan: Mawer’s global small cap portfolio | EP116

Why small caps may zig while large caps zag, the advantage of businesses that sell scarce skills (CBIZ, Insperity, RS Group), and why eyewear retail is harder than it…looks.

Playing the plan: Mawer’s international equity portfolio | EP115

The impacts of inflation, interest rates, and sharp currency movements on the portfolio, and the importance of leaning in to process and keeping a long-term perspective.  

An energy-fuelled debate: Are renewables actually becoming cheaper? | EP114

The team debates the thesis that renewables are becoming “cheaper” than traditional energy sources, unpacks why the ultimate cost to the end consumer shouldn’t be missing from the conversation, and delves into the investment implications.

Quarterly Update | Q2 2022 | EP113

Inflation, interest rates, the valuation correction, bias creep, and “sticking to our knitting.” A full dive into Q2.

How to make (good) decisions | EP112

CIO Paul Moroz unpacks the foundational components to better decision making for investing, business, and life.

Playing the plan: Mawer’s Canadian bond portfolio | EP111

Lead Portfolio Manager, Crista Caughlin, on what’s happening in bond markets, a look at inflation and interest rates, and the key scenarios we’re monitoring. 

Playing the plan: Mawer’s Canadian equity portfolio | EP110

Opportunities and risks we’re seeing in energy, rail, and financials; why we exited Shopify; and a few team learnings.