Gold: The Sparkly Asset That Never Fails to Spark Debate

Picture this: It's 1971, and President Nixon just ended the gold standard, severing the dollar's convertibility to gold. The fixed price of $35 per ounce was history. Fast-forward to today—the U.S. national debt has ballooned past $35 trillion, political gridlock is the norm, and gold has just hit another record high. Coincidence? Hardly.

Gold's surge to record territory in 2025 isn't just another market anomaly. It's the result of a perfect storm: macroeconomic pressures, unprecedented central bank buying, and a world that feels increasingly unstable. But before you rush to load up on bullion, let's separate the golden truths from the fool's gold.

When Crisis Strikes: What History Tells Us About Markets Under Fire

Investors today confront the most serious Middle East crisis in decades. The Israel-Iran conflict has demonstrated how quickly regional tensions can escalate to unprecedented levels, with the potential for direct military confrontation creating ongoing market uncertainty.

The Art of Quality Investing: Balancing Discipline and Opportunity

Quality investing focuses on identifying and investing in companies with strong, enduring fundamentals, at the right price. These companies typically possess competitive advantages, maintain dominant market positions, exhibit comfortable financial leverage, generate sustainable free cash flow, and are led by management teams with a history of deploying capital effectively. This article will delve into the characteristics of quality companies, the metrics used to quantify quality, and the durability of quality through market cycles. 

Prepare, Don’t Predict: Lin Wells, 100 years of stock returns, and the Lindy Principle

Using Lin Wells' Pentagon memo and Hendrik Bessembinder's research, this article illustrates that companies with sustained modest returns over long periods significantly outperform short-term high performers, suggesting investors should focus on resilient businesses that can adapt across changing world orders rather than making predictions.

Stop, Go, Yield: A Quick Mental Model for Uncertain Times

At times like these, temperament matters as much as analysis. While transitions create uncertainty, they also generate opportunity for those who remain clear-eyed. 

Fixed Income Allocations for 2025 and Beyond: A Playbook for Investors

Credit valuations appear elevated, global debt levels are high and rising quickly, and persistent fiscal imbalances risk undermining market confidence. In this piece, we discuss how investors should consider navigating the current uncertainty while improving the long-term prospects of their fixed income allocation. 

Survive and Advance

College basketball teams don't win because they are the best—they win because they find ways to survive. That’s what long-term investing is about. 

Extra Credit: Defaults Matter

We explore default risk, one of the most significant challenges in credit investing. We cover the data behind default risk, current trends and compensation, and Mawer's approach to managing this risk.

An AI Efficiency Breakthrough: DeepSeek’s Impact

A sudden release from a Chinese AI start-up rocked markets last week. DeepSeek, a new large-language model (LLM), has demonstrated performance comparable to OpenAI’s ChatGPT while dramatically reducing compute and power costs through innovative design and optimizations. This news has the potential to upend the current AI narratives and surrounding technology ecosystem that have been driving financial markets this cycle.

Extra Credit: Bank Additional Tier 1 Capital Instruments

In this piece, we cover the structure of AT1s, some history on how the space has evolved (including its use globally), thoughts on valuation, and potential use in a well constructed credit portfolio.

Dead Reckoning: Investing Lessons from the High Seas

The waters of the market are choppy and unpredictable. Investors, like sailors, must grapple with incomplete information, unexpected shifts, and the ever-present possibility of being wildly off course. The currents—momentum—can be powerful. PE multiples, EV-to-EBITDA ratios, earnings expectations, leading economic indicators, discounted cash flow models… all dead reckoning.

This article will illustrate several ideations and tools investors can incorporate into their processes to navigate the choppy, mercurial waters of long-term investing.

'Twas the week before Christmas

‘Twas the week before Christmas, so let's have some fun. Mawer recaps the main themes of 2024. 

Extra Credit: Why Not Just a “Little” High Yield?

High yield spreads continue to tighten. As risk premiums fall, and economic and political conditions appear positive for corporates in general, it is tempting to reach for yield in credit markets. As Howard Marks of Oaktree points out, the all-in yield (benchmark yield plus risk premium) on high yield is 7.0% and who doesn’t love a 7.0% return? What could possibly go wrong?

Quarterly Update | Q2 2025 | EP 193

In this episode Canadian bond portfolio manager, Crista Caughlin, and balanced portfolio manager, Steven Visscher discuss Q2’s market and economic activity. Topics covered include “Liberation Day's” tariff shocks, central bank policies, inflation, and other themes.

Customizing the Last Mile: AI, Innovation, and Mawer’s Tech Evolution | EP 192

In this episode, Justin Anderson, Mawer’s Chief Technology Officer, sits down to discuss the evolving “build-in vs. build-out” technology framework. Justin explains how Mawer approaches technology decisions—balancing vendor solutions with in-house customization—and shares practical examples from the firm, including proprietary solutions such as trade&MAWER and M42. The conversation explores how advances in AI and large language models are accelerating the shift toward more tailored, efficient solutions. He also offers insights for investors on what to look for in management teams as organizations adapt to rapid technological change.

Energy, Gold, and Growth: Current Insights on Canadian Markets | EP 191

Mark Rutherford, co-manager of Mawer’s Canadian large cap strategy, discusses the ongoing volatility in oil, the unique role of gold, the outlook for Canadian banks, and the potential impact of recent political changes. Mark also shares how the Mawer team is leveraging AI to enhance their investment process and decision-making. 

Finding Hidden Gems in Emerging Markets | EP 190

Join Peter Lampert, Portfolio Manager of Mawer's Emerging Markets strategy, as he takes you on a journey from Polish meat counters to UAE boardrooms, revealing how a disciplined bottom-up approach uncovers extraordinary opportunities in overlooked markets. 

Navigating Uncertainty: Global Small Caps, Process Innovation, and AI at Mawer | EP189

Karan Phadke, portfolio manager for Mawer’s global small cap strategy, shares insights on how small caps are navigating trade policy volatility, the importance of proactive management, and Mawer’s unique approach to process improvement and AI integration in investment research.

The Long View: Global Equity Positioning in Uncertain Markets | EP 188

Global equity co-manager, Manar Hassan-Agha, examines how tariff policies have created uncertainty for businesses, particularly impacting capital deployment decisions and supply chains. Manar explains how a focus on asset-light, service-oriented businesses with recurring revenue provides resilience during volatile periods, with limited direct exposure to tariff-vulnerable exports. Through specific company examples like Admiral Group, UnitedHealth, and a beauty products business, he illustrates how the team evaluates short-term price movements versus long-term intrinsic value, emphasizing the importance of disciplined position sizing and maintaining a balanced, diversified portfolio across geographies and market caps during uncertain times. 

Investment Opportunities in a Changing Military Landscape | EP 187

In this episode, we discuss the defense industry's evolution with equity analyst Joshua Samuel. He highlights the historical underinvestment in European defense, the recent increase in defense spending, particularly Germany's program, and the strategic importance of land systems. 

Finding Silver Linings: International Investing Through Trade Policy Turbulence | EP186

In this episode, portfolio manager, Peter Lampert discusses international equities and the impact of tariffs on portfolio management.

Quarterly Update | Q1 2025 | EP185

In this Quarterly episode, Crista Caughlin, lead portfolio manager for Canadian bonds, and Jeff Mo, lead portfolio manager for U.S. midcaps, discuss market performance through Q1 2025 and the significant volatility that followed in early Q2—particularly after "Liberation Day" when the Trump administration imposed sweeping tariffs, followed by retaliation from other countries, and then a partial pause.

Market Update: April 8, 2025 | EP184

Mawer President and portfolio manager, Jim Hall, discusses the current market environment and the team's approach to risk management. 

When Tariff Waves Crash: Maintaining Course in Volatile Markets | EP 183

U.S. mid cap equity portfolio manager, Jeff Mo, discusses the market's sharp sell-off following President Trump's announcement of widespread tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners. 

U.S. Equity Insights: The Impact of Policy Shifts and AI | EP182

We discuss the early months of the new U.S. administration with Grayson Witcher, lead portfolio manager for the U.S. equity strategy at Mawer. Grayson touches on the impact of tariffs, including the practical and unpredictable aspects of tariffs and how they influence decision-making. Grayson also shares insights on the potential long-term effects of the AI boom and highlights recent portfolio adjustments in response to evolving market dynamics.

Credit Markets: Risks, Rewards, and the Road Ahead | EP181

We discuss credit markets with Brian Carney, lead portfolio manager of the Mawer Global Credit Opportunities strategy. Brian touches on the tightening of credit spreads, risks in the leveraged loan market, and the limited compensation for high-yield bonds relative to their risks. He also reviews concerns about U.S. government credit quality, private credit profitability, and corporate policy shifts. Looking back on Mawer's GCO strategy performance in 2024, Brian highlights future plans for growth, process refinement, and team expansion.